Analysis of the five major competition camps in the industrial switching power supply market
Potential growth is an extremely important indicator of managing a country's economy. The economy cannot exceed the potential growth rate, or it will overheat and inflation. However, it can not be lower than the potential growth rate, otherwise there will be unemployment, which is not only bad for social stability, but also a waste for economic society. Finding this potential growth rate, however, is not easy.
There is a way to determine the potential growth rate of the economy, and the goal of doubling China's per capita income by 2020 will require a 7.5% annual growth rate. But this is nonsense about economics. If that logic holds, why shouldn't the U.S. be able to determine a 7.5% growth rate? Why can't Japan also set a 7.5% growth rate?
One way to look at economics is to find the economy without the threshold of accelerating inflation. But this approach is not feasible in today's world. Nowadays, the world is awash in liquidity, and the virtual economy is overdeveloped, which is free from the real economy and self-circulation, self-expanding and speculative. In this case, should the inflation index be calculated into asset prices? If asset prices are included, the nature of the property, which has a natural inflationary slump, should be calculated because asset prices are vulnerable to expectations and speculation.
In China, where housing prices are growing at an average annual rate of 15%, is it not that inflation is as high as 6.3%? Of course, I don't blame China at all, after all, countries are issuing currencies. I don't agree with mainstream economics that a floating exchange rate can block out an external excess. Indeed, if the exchange rate is fixed, then the inflow of hot money will lead to an increase in the base currency, leading to general price increases, including asset prices. In fact, even with the floating exchange rate, the inflow of hot money can lead to the increase of domestic currency. In the case of floating exchange rate regime and peripheral liquidity, the exchange rate of the exchange rate can lead to the inflow of funds due to the convertibility of capital items. Yes, within the scope of world currency super hair, liquidity and capital and free movement of the earth, any country more currency, are increasing the world's economic large pool of money; Any country that overcomes its currency will turn into a foreign currency. Any country today can't judge its potential growth rate by inflation.
Another way to look at economics is to look at employment levels. The potential rate of growth is the level of economic growth that is right for full employment. This approach is not only feasible but also the most reliable in a free market economy. Unfortunately, in the developed countries of Europe and America, the economy has deviated from the free market economy because of high wages and welfare policies. Relatively speaking, China has a much freer labor market: no artificial high wages, high welfare; There is a minimum wage law, but the statutory minimum wage is lower than the minimum wage in the market. There are unions, but the unions are just apple soy sauce, the organization that organizes tourism, completely without the functions and functions of western union. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is not good, these are just good Chinese. China can also judge the potential growth rate of the economy based on employment.
But you can't judge the economic boom by the employment of college students. Today's universities, apart from making college students dream big, do not add much practical skills. How can such college students' employment status be used as the basis for judging the economic boom? Generally speaking, if college students can obtain employment for the first time, then the economy is overheating.
The best indicator of economic prosperity is the employment of migrant workers. This is a highly marketable employment group, and they are truly in the market. We have to ask: at the current level of 7.6 per cent, have large-scale migrant workers lost their jobs? No, it's still difficult. Have the wages of migrant workers fallen sharply? No, it's still increasing. Considering the 7.6% is in monetary super hair, real estate and other asset prices rose sharply, as well as the strong stimulus (the end) though it is achieved, then the potential growth of 7.6%, it is not economic. There is no mistake. The underlying level of economic growth should be lower than that.